By Adam Pagnucco.
Last Friday, the Montgomery County Education Association (MCEA) announced its endorsees in county and school board races. Because those endorsements appear on its widely distributed Apple Ballot, MCEA’s decisions are major news in county politics.
So what will they mean?
There are multiple dimensions to this cycle’s Apple Ballot, particularly in terms of ideology and fiscal ramifications. This column will concentrate on one facet: electability. Now that these candidates have locked down the Apple’s support, what are the chances that they will win?
Let’s start with one thing the Apple does not do: it doesn’t make non-viable candidates into winners. Candidates who don’t raise money and thereby struggle to wage viable campaigns are unable to leverage the Apple to achieve success. Examples of this in recent years include Will Roberts (Council District 2) in 2022, Fatmata Barrie (Council District 5) in 2022, Ana Sol Gutierrez (Council District 1) in 2018 and Brandy Brooks (Council At-Large) in 2018. The Apple by itself could not get them elected.
Now here is what the Apple actually does: it makes viable candidates stronger. Take Council Member Will Jawando, who is running for executive. He finished second in the council at-large race in both 2018 and 2022. In the latter year, he was the top at-large vote getter in Downtown Silver Spring, Takoma Park and East County and led the field in bullet votes. Jawando would have been a strong candidate no matter what. But now that he has the Apple Ballot, he will have the money and the acumen to spread it everywhere. He may also lead a de facto slate with most, if not all, of its members also on the Apple Ballot. He may be the early front runner, but let’s see the next round of campaign finance reports before making that determination.
Next are an at-large incumbent (Laurie-Anne Sayles) and a quasi-incumbent (Marc Elrich). Incumbents rarely lose, and with the Apple, both of them look like favorites. Other incumbents with the Apple (Kate Stewart in District 4, Kristin Mink in District 5 and Natali Fani-Gonzalez in District 6) have no challengers at this point.
Julie Yang in District 1 and Izola Shaw in District 3 are understandable endorsements. Yang has been a supportive school board member for MCEA and an able fundraiser. It’s easy to imagine a path to victory for her, especially with the Apple. Shaw is a Rockville City Council Member, which proves she can win an election, and her progressive outlook is a better fit for MCEA than Gaithersburg Mayor Jud Ashman. The key number in her race is how her margin in Rockville will compare to Ashman’s margin in Gaithersburg. The Apple gives her an opportunity to improve those numbers in her favor provided that she has the funding to advertise it.
That leaves Barrie and Josie Caballero in the at-large field. Barrie is a third-time candidate and repeat candidates often come back to win if they perform decently. But Barrie finished fifth of seven in the 2018 District 20 House race and was walloped by Mink last time even though she possessed the Apple. What makes MCEA believe that she is a better candidate now? As for Caballero, she’s a complete unknown. Is she the next Mink? Or will she share the fate of most hitherto unknown candidates?
When I first started writing, MCEA employed a strategist named Jon Gerson. Jon was chatty, occasionally obnoxious, loved to remind you of all the things he knew and you didn’t and was secretly disliked by many politicians who feared him. But Jon was really good at assessing the viability of candidates and reported back on their prospects to his bosses. If MCEA were to endorse a candidate who was not going to win, at least they knew it. And when they placed a bet on a first-timer (like Jeff Waldstreicher in 2006), they were usually right. As unpopular as he may have been with some, Jon was a useful guy for them to have around at endorsement time.
Some of MCEA’s decisions now cause me to ask whether making a statement is more important to them than winning. They certainly made a statement by not endorsing District 2’s Marilyn Balcombe and District 7’s Dawn Luedtke, both of whom voted to raise taxes to fund MCPS’s budget and are headed back to Rockville. In the past, incumbents who opted to raise taxes for MCPS would usually get the Apple, but now it seems that’s not enough to garner MCEA’s support. This is going to get a lot of attention from elected officials and many others.
I also wonder if the teachers understand what their endorsement can and can’t accomplish. Yes, they ousted three school board incumbents last year, but they had the election almost to themselves and none of those candidates had money. In the coming county executive and county council races, many of these candidates will have serious money (especially one of Jawando’s rivals, Andrew Friedson) and other groups will play, including other unions and the real estate industry.
The Apple Ballot is the number one endorsement in Montgomery County. It always matters. But how much it will matter in the coming county primaries is still an open question for now.