By Adam Pagnucco.
Congresswoman April McClain Delaney’s campaign sure likes to release internal polls. (And I like printing them!) Yesterday, I wrote about an internal poll conducted for her by Hart Research showing that she had a 12-point lead among 500 respondents from March 16 through 21. Today, she released another internal poll showing her with an 11-point lead among 564 respondents from April 11 through 14. This poll has a margin of error of 4.2 points, so her lead is statistically significant.
I will reprint the polling memo below, but first, I have two comments.
First, why is she releasing these polls back to back? Maybe it has something to do with Trone shoveling $10 million of self-funding into the race, which is likely only the start. McClain Delaney wants to show her supporters and – especially – her financial backers that Trone’s spending isn’t making a dent in her numbers. (She had a 17 point lead in December so that point is debatable.)
Second, mass comms season is well underway in the sixth district, but I have not heard that big buys on negative comms have begun. They will, and McClain Delaney’s pollster knows it. In my history of internal polling on the 2022 county executive race (which also featured polling by Hart), I showed how County Executive Marc Elrich’s early lead was closed first by positive comms and later by negative comms. Negative campaigning works. If Trone dumps in another $20 million on negative TV and mail, I would not regard an 11-point lead as particularly durable.
It’s white knuckle time for both McClain Delaney and Trone. Let the mailhouses and TV folks rejoice!
Hart’s new polling memo is printed below.
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TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Hart Research Associates
DATE: April 15, 2026
RE: Just-completed 6th CD Democratic Primary survey shows Congresswoman April McClain Delaney continues to hold double-digit lead even with Trone’s massive spending
Hart Research Associates conducted a survey between April 11 and 14, 2026, among 564 likely Maryland 6th CD Democratic primary voters via landline and cell phone. The survey was representative of a 6th CD Democratic primary electorate by key demographic and geographic factors and has a margin of error of ±4.2%.
Congresswoman McClain Delaney leads David Trone in the initial trial heat–49% to 38%, virtually identical to survey we conducted more than three weeks ago.
McClain Delaney leads in every part of the district, and leads among both men (47%-39%) and women (50%-37%). In addition, McClain Delaney has exceptional favorability ratings of 80% positive and just 9% negative, including a 73% positive rating among Trone voters.
Our survey continues to show David Trone is close to his ceiling despite his massive spending. First, McClain Delaney leads by 50%-39% among the sizeable proportion of the electorate that is POSITIVE toward both candidates (fully 78% of the ENTIRE electorate). Second, McClain Delaney’s image runs better than three-to-one positive among undecided voters, whereas Trone’s profile is slightly more polarizing with undecideds at less than two-to-one positive.