By Adam Pagnucco.
Part One covered the methodology of this series. Part Two looked at total employment. Part Three examined federal government employment. Part Four reviewed private sector employment. Part Five looked at construction employment. Part Six examined establishments. Part Seven reviewed real total wages paid. Part Eight looked at real total wages paid per job, a proxy for average salaries.
Now we conclude.
Let’s consider our ranking among the region’s ten largest jurisdictions (D.C., Frederick, Howard, Prince George’s, Alexandria, Arlington, Fairfax, Loudoun, Prince William and us) on growth in the following indicators since 2007, the year before the Great Recession.
Total employment growth: 9 of 10
Private sector employment growth: 9 of 10
Establishment growth: 9 of 10
Real total wages paid growth: 9 of 10
Real total wages paid per job growth: 7 of 10
Our only neighbor that consistently trails us is Alexandria. Prince George’s and Loudoun trailed us on one measure (real total wages paid per job growth) and Loudoun is otherwise one of the strongest performers in the region. Everyone else – large and small – has been outpacing us for years.
Imagine that you are an investor or an employer and you are considering where to put your resources in the D.C. area. MoCo is potentially an attractive candidate because of its relative affluence, its modest crime rate, its superior amenities, its many nice neighborhoods and its competitive public schools. But most of our neighbors also have those assets. The differentiator is that we are economically stagnant and most of them are not. Why would you create jobs or invest money in MoCo rather than in most of these other places?
And if you’re a resident looking to move and prioritizing access to a bountiful job market, again, why pick MoCo?
These are not theoretical considerations. Our failure to compete economically is the biggest single reason for our recurring budget problems, which resulted in a huge tax increase for most homeowners this year.
Nine years ago, I wrote the following in the wake of another big property tax increase (then labeled the Giant Tax Hike) – one which contributed to the passage of term limits by voters.
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Progressive policies such as those favored by Montgomery County politicians cost lots of money. That money can only be obtained over the long term through a robust economy. Economic growth is affected by the totality of what the county does – its investments in education and transportation, its fiscal and taxation policies, its planning decisions and the nature of new laws and regulations it imposes on employers. If any of these things negatively impacts economic growth, marketing programs, slogans and massive incentives for large businesses will not by themselves make up for it.
The Number One lesson from the Giant Tax Hike is that the next generation of county elected officials must prioritize job creation and income growth. Failure to do so will result in more tax hikes and further long-term decline.
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This remains more true today than it was nine years ago because we have made no progress on this issue. The data in this series makes it clear once again: economic strength must be our number one priority. If we achieve it, there is not a single other problem we have that we cannot solve. But if we fail – or worse, do not even seriously try – no other issue can truly be fixed.
A new executive and a new council will be seated in December. Will they be up to the challenge?