By Adam Pagnucco.
Part One listed Will Jawando’s assets and liabilities. Part Two looked at Andrew Friedson. Part Three examined Evan Glass. Part Four recited a timeline of key events in the election cycle. Part Five broke down Jawando’s performance by district, area and racial populations of precincts.
This section makes use of correlation coefficients to examine factors associated with Jawando’s precinct performance. Here is how I explained this statistic in a prior post.
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A correlation coefficient is a simple statistic that measures the relationship between two variables. A correlation of +1.0 is a perfect positive relationship between the two while a correlation of -1.0 is a perfect negative relationship. There is disagreement about characterizing the strength of the correlation, but for this analysis, I will regard anything outside of +/- 0.5 as moderate to strong and worthy of mention.
One thing that makes interpreting correlation coefficients tricky is that an association between two variables does not prove that one causes the other. Cause could arise from one or more outside variables that together influence the two being examined. Sample problems could also affect the calculation. So while a strong correlation coefficient provides a bit of evidence for two variables being associated in some way, it’s still worth a bit of investigation to firm it up.
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Jawando’s results by district, area and racial concentration, as profiled in Part Five, provide clues to his strengths and weaknesses. Now we will use correlation coefficients and scatter charts to zero in on factors we could measure that were associated with his performance for better or worse.
The following four factors stood out.
Positive: Black Population Percentage of Precinct
The scatter chart below shows Jawando’s precinct vote percentage (horizontal axis) plotted against Black population percentage (vertical axis) for each of the county’s 257 precincts.
The upward sloping line of best fit (in red dashes) indicates a positive relationship. The correlation coefficient was +0.71, a strong result. Black voters were a big key for Jawando’s win.
Negative: David Blair’s Performance in 2022
The scatter chart below shows Jawando’s precinct vote percentage (horizontal axis) plotted against county executive candidate David Blair’s vote percentage in 2022 (vertical axis).
The downward sloping line of best fit (red dashes) indicates a negative relationship. The correlation coefficient was -0.63, a moderate-to-strong result. This suggests that Blair’s strengths were in part Jawando’s weaknesses, and vice versa.
Incidentally, the correlation coefficient between Jawando’s performance and the 2022 precinct performance of Marc Elrich, Blair’s principal opponent, was +0.43. That’s a moderate positive but not as strong as the relationship with Blair’s performance.
I worked for Blair’s campaign in 2022 and his base voters included many who were concerned about taxes, fiscal responsibility and economic development. I’m not surprised that these folks tended to not support Jawando.
Negative: White Population Percentage of Precinct
The scatter chart below shows Jawando’s precinct vote percentage (horizontal axis) plotted against White population percentage (vertical axis).
The downward sloping line of best fit (red dashes) indicates a negative relationship. The correlation coefficient was -0.58, a moderate-to-strong result. With the notable exception of Chevy Chase, precincts with high concentrations of White voters did not go for Jawando.
Negative: Mean Zip Code Household Income
The scatter chart below shows Jawando’s precinct vote percentage (horizontal axis) plotted against mean zip code household income (vertical axis).
The downward sloping line of best fit (red dashes) indicates a negative relationship. The correlation coefficient was -0.57, a moderate-to-strong result. Jawando performed better among low- and moderate-income voters than among high-income voters. One reason is because his biggest rival, Andrew Friedson, represents a council district packed with high-income folks.
And so Jawando’s coalition was a combination of progressives (especially in Downtown Silver Spring and Takoma Park), Black Dems, low- and moderate-income voters and voters who did not support David Blair. Latinos (whose population percentage had a +0.43 correlation coefficient with Jawando’s precinct performance) also helped him. In May 2025, I asked whether he was the front runner in the race and cited some of these reasons for his potential success. In retrospect, that post was prophetic.
Next: Andrew Friedson.