By Adam Pagnucco.
Part One described our methodology and polled our sources on a few state legislative races. Part Two discussed Congressional District 6 and the sheriff’s race. Today, let’s discuss county council races. All comments are from sources and are not mine.
Council At-Large
Here are a few comments from my sources.
*****
I think Goldberg is in, otherwise would not be surprised if Elrich, Silvestre, McNulty, Caballero, Barrie, or Pope made the cut. Sayles is probably safe unless the media really picks up on the Hawaii stuff.
Elrich loses, tax issue finally catches up with him. Sayles barely squeaks in despite gross incompetence and questionable ethics. Goldberg is the top vote getter. McNulty comes in third.
Elrich, Goldberg, Silvestre. They are really the only 3 who have gained county-wide traction. Wild card – Sayles DOESN’T win. If that happens not sure who #4 would be? Pope, McNulty, Barrie???
Marc Elrich, Laurie Anne Sayles, Scott Goldberg . Marc and Laurie-Anne are incumbents and Scott has incredible legitimacy.
Not in order of predicted vote totals. In order of most likely to be top four: 1. Elrich. He just has too much name recognition and built up history to finish fifth or lower here. One would think. He hasn’t run a real campaign outside of using the County Executive bully pulpit (similar to his run for County Executive in 2022). If he fails to win here, that means we had a truly and singularly resonant issue (affordability/taxes) in a way we haven’t for a long time in Montgomery County. 2. Goldberg. Goldberg has run a solid campaign, mainly by virtue of building a well-rounded and diverse coalition. He also is the At-Large candidate most likely to own the affordability message. This is where it gets almost impossible to predict but…. 3. Silvestre. Not being on the Apple Ballot for a sitting Board of Ed member is rough, however she has recovered somewhat nicely in terms of institutional/establishment support. Maybe that’s enough for top four in a multiple-candidate field? 4. Sayles. I doubt anyone pays to bring up the negatives about her, and that means the vast majority of voters simply aren’t going to know there are significant questions about her commitment to the role or ability to perform it.
I think Scott Goldberg wins with the most votes, followed by Elrich solely on name recognition. The next two are a toss up and I think that this really has a huge effect on the way the county works over the next 4 years. My hunch says it’s Silvestre and Sayles, just because of name recognition. To really help stabilize the county and push our political world more toward the center and common sense, I’d love to see McNulty.
This might be the time when Marc actually loses a race. He is still a power on the liberal side of the political house, but I think he’s worn out his welcome by his relentless focus on taxes and the narrative he’s come up with that misstates the tax situation in Fairfax and Northern Virginia. He completely leaves out a whole range of taxes that Montgomery County also levies that are among the highest in the entire state, such as energy and leads on the income tax, which Northern Virginia does not levy either. He’s not wrong to some degree but his narrative is unbalanced and not complete and leaves out key factors. He’s also been associated for so long with higher taxes and continuing budget increases. I think people are finally weary of this. Finally, he’s not lived up to some of his promises, especially when it comes to reforming county government, which I think people now believe must happen. If he does lose, I think the winners will be Karla Silvestre who’s run at large before and I think is doing a good job in her campaign, Scott Goldberg, whose campaign is also well managed and well financed, Laurie Anne Sayles, who is tarnishing her image a bit lately but I think still has an instinct for winning and Jim McNulty.
Elrich, Silvestre, Goldberg, Sayles. Name recognition for Elrich and Sayles. Hard work and broad respect for Silvestre, and hard work, broad political support for Goldberg.
Elrich, due to name recognition and a history of winning. Goldberg, because he has had a good ad campaign and has name recognition. Sayles probably wins, but it’s not a sure bet. Fourth seat goes to McNulty or Silvestre. I pick her.
Scott Goldberg, Karla Silvestre, Marc Elrich (maybe). I don’t see how Scott Goldberg doesn’t make it this year after his strong showing in 2022. Conventional wisdom is that Marc will return to the Council, but I could see a scenario where someone like Jim McNulty or Fatmata Barrie squeaked by.
Scott Goldberg. Based on the fact that he came in #5 four years ago in the At Lg race; he has good videos (online) where he shares his humor & views; he has HUGE yard signs and I see his signs far more than any other At Large candidates’ signs.
Sayles because incumbents win. Elrich given his base. Goldberg has run an exemplary campaign. Silvestre based on the combination of positions, identity, name recognition, and cash. None of the others has built a county-wide presence.
Elrich, Goldberg, Silvestre and Sayles. Unfortunately, it looks like few voters will go to the polls knowing that Laurie Anne took a trip to Hawaii during the most consequential budget debate of her term in office and wants the taxpayers to pay for it. This really highlights the problem with first-four-past-the-post elections – none of her opponents wants to devote resources to criticizing her because it would likely damage both the attacker and Sayles to the benefit of other candidates. She might still lose simply because she has been a tremendous dud as a Councilmember, but she will probably edge out Fatmata Barrie or Jim McNulty and everyone will be kicking themselves for not finding a way to call her out over the Hawaii trip.
Marc Elrich, Scott Goldberg, and Karla Silvestre will win. Laurie-Anne Sayles has struggled with a self-inflicted scandal, but she will likely eke out the fourth spot. If independent parties want to still knock her off, they have to move quickly and with resources.
Sayles – incumbent; many organizational endorsements; significant individual endorsements. Elrich – he is a survivor and his base of support in down county is still strong. Goldberg – top $$ candidate; a ton of individual endorsements; experienced in running this race; everybody likes him; and he is sort of funny. Pope – second in $$; learned a lot from his 2022 campaign; has just enough individual and organizational endorsements to win. Caballero – has enough $$ to win; has enough individual endorsements to win; has enough organizational endorsements to win. But three problems ultimately doom her campaign: Jewish voters not happy with her views, a lot of her money is from out-of-state and she burned $$ too quickly not allowing her to do an effective direct mail/digital mail program. Silvestre – has enough $$ to win; has enough individual endorsements to win; has enough experience to win but a present School Board member who could not get the coveted Apple Ballot ultimately dooms her. Barrie – has enough money to win; has enough individual endorsements to win; has the experience but she had all of this in 2022 and lost by a lot to current District 5 Council member Mink. Her lack of voter strength down county, UpCounty and in the Chevy Chase/Potomac/Bethesda area ultimately dooms her campaign. The others lack name recognition; individual endorsements; organizational endorsements; money; and/or county wide support to be a factor.
Elrich, Sayles, Goldberg, Silvestre. Why? Two incumbents + School Board Member + a guy who’s run before and knows how to parlay money and supporters.
Elrich, Goldberg, Sayles, Silvestre. If voters take the lack of seriousness of Sayles to the polls, this could go to Pope or McNulty. At this time the name recognition matters and she will probably be re-elected, but it is a loss for residents and taxpayers.
Goldberg. Elrich. Silvestre. McNulty. Goldberg and Elrich have too much money and too much name recognition to fall outside of the top 2. Silvestre has run a great race over the past month (sprinting at the end!). Sayles is the most vulnerable now… having run a very poor campaign. McNulty is likely knocking at the door if Sayles falters more. [I wrote the above last week… and I’m now changing it. I think McNulty is going to pull it out and take over 4th place from Sayles. She has run an absolutely horrible campaign.]
Scott Goldberg – second time’s a charm? Scott ran a strong effective campaign and spent the last several months traversing the county. He was literally everywhere. This + his strong comms program will put him at the top.
*****
Final source tally
Goldberg: 61 votes
Elrich: 48 votes
Silvestre: 44 votes
Sayles: 32 votes
McNulty: 8 votes
Barrie: 2 votes
Pope and Selvam: 1 vote each
Council District 1
Source comments:
*****
Julie Yang. People are impressed with her immigrant experience and her strong support of Jewish needs while on the County school board in a very Jewish district.
Morrison. Like Friedson, Morrison has run a technically excellent campaign. Like Friedson, Morrison has control of the affordability/tax issue. Unlike Friedson, one of Morrison’s competitors (Yang) has slightly more resources along with the Apple Ballot. This is close, but I wonder about Yang’s lack of any real messaging on policy. She has a great personal story, and that’s seemingly all. If you need to show some policy chops anywhere anymore, it’s Montgomery County District 1. Complicating things for Yang is that Spielberg will conquer the anti-growth vote, which has a ceiling but that Yang could really use.
Yang. Hard worker, good campaign, BOE name recognition, growing strength of Asian electorate.
Debbie Spielberg in a close one because she should get Marc’s voters.
Julie Yang. She has name recognition and is a prolific fundraiser. Debbie Spielberg can only go so far on Marc Elrich’s coattails, which have had a bad track record (see Beth Daly in 2014). A Drew Morrison second-place finish would really drive that message home.
My bubble says Spielberg. Yang appears strong outside my bubble and could take it. I’ll say Spielberg.
Julie Yang – in a very close race. Debbie works hard but no one outworks Yang who is so politically savvy she was able to get the Apple Ballot and has never borne the brunt of the Beidleman/McKnight/Electric Bus Contracts controversies that have doomed others.
Toss up between Julie and Drew – Drew is the better candidate who has more in-depth well rounded experiences.
Yang. Why? A proven vote getter as a School Board Member.
Probably Yang because of her money. Morrison might win with business backing.
I think Drew Morrison is the best candidate, but he isn’t well known. Debbie Spielberg seems to have gained many supporters and will win.
Yang – Julie has run a good race and has been everywhere she should be and taken the positions her district aligns with (again the only pro-Wootton vote on the BOE).
Yang – her fundraising and organization has been amazing. If she gets on the Council she will need to be ready to be held accountable, she has had a history of deflecting and not taking responsibility for MCPS. She will benefit from hiring a strong staff. District 1 residents are a tough bunch and have high expectations.
Yang. Julie is the most complete candidate: moderate support, institutional relationships, money, and ground game. While the other candidates are running good campaigns, she is running a great campaign.
I think Julie Yang pulls it out. She stands above Morrison and Spielberg in name recognition and has done a very good job of campaigning.
I think Drew Morrison is gaining ground rapidly, and if he had another three months he might be able to pull it off but it’s been a 2 woman race from the start since Debbie and Julie are both fairly well known. I think Julie will win.
I’d really like to see Drew Morrison win but it feels as though Julie Yang has built up some good momentum and I think she may win.
Debbie Spielburg. She has a very experienced and invested team supporting her.
*****
Final source tally
Yang: 38 votes
Spielberg: 9 votes
Morrison: 5 votes
Tossup: 1 vote
Council District 3
Source comments:
*****
Jud takes it in D3, but it’ll be a lot closer than I initially expected. Jud has much better name recognition / popularity in Gaithersburg as long term mayor, whereas Zola just has part of a term as Councilmember in Rockville.
This one’s gonna be the closest and I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s an upset. Ashman not really doing much on social media or out in public other than he usually does, but he has some really good name recognition and super strong Gaithersburg ties.
Ashman in D3. He has far more name recognition. Even though Rockville is slightly larger, his reach into Gaithersburg is far deeper. And he has the Rockville electeds behind him.
Ashman. Ashman had a bigger base of support to begin with and then got the support of the City of Rockville “establishment,” which says a lot about what they must think of their colleague Shaw. There’s definitely a path for Shaw with the Apple Ballot but she hasn’t run a particularly great campaign that I’ve observed. Eriksen never got traction. There was potentially a way for a laid off federal worker/contractor to play here given all that’s happening. But, also, the world (and the news cycles) move quickly.
Ashman — Popular Gaithersburg Mayor has money and is door-knocking.
Shaw. Close call, very hard worker. Progressive vs Gaithersburg vote.
Jud wins by a wide margin, though not as wide as his Mayoral victory.
Jud Ashman. He’s been a familiar face in Gaithersburg for almost 20 years and the current District 3 councilmember is also a former mayor.
Julie Yang and Jud Ashman will win. People forget: normies are the overwhelming majority of voters, not blue-haired DSA types.
Jud Ashman – Not really the strongest leader out there and a bit of an opportunist. I will miss Sidney Katz.
I’m disgusted that Ashman just ran and took the Gaithersburg mayoral seat in the election last November, only to turn around and vacate that position he just won to run for County Council, but it’s clear he has a strong network that will carry him wherever he wants to go.
Ashman (but it is going to be closer than anyone thought even 4 months ago). The situation with Wootton hurt him.
Ashman. This was likely going to be a blowout, but the Wootton issue has made it close. Many people in Rockville (including people outside of the Wootton School District) feel that Jud Ashman’s choice to advocate for a school board result which would be/was very detrimental to Rockville while, at the same time, running to represent Rockville on the County Council. Not a good look for him. I ultimately think he will pull it out, but it will be a lot closer than initially anticipated.
Shaw is a strong candidate with a progressive message, the Apple Ballot and outside help. No one should be too quick to call this race for Ashman.
*****
Final source tally
Ashman: 43 votes
Shaw: 3 votes
Next: We conclude with the wild and woolly county executive race!