By Adam Pagnucco.
Part One described our methodology and polled our sources on a few state legislative races. Part Two discussed Congressional District 6 and the sheriff’s race. Part Three discussed county council races. Today, we conclude with the county executive race. All comments are from sources and are not mine.
County Executive
My sources had a lot to say about this race! Let’s hear from them.
*****
Could see any of the three big names winning, going to guess the big spending on ads from Friedson and message on taxes and affordability carries the day.
Friedson. Another super tight one but not as close as 32 votes. I think the anti-Jawando crowd will rally with him once they see it’s a two person race.
Blair bloc stays intact and Friedson wins.
Friedson. Friedson has run, from a technical perspective, an almost flawless campaign. He also happens to own one of the few potentially resonant issues (affordability, taxes) and he has the most resources. Jawando of course has a real shot with the Apple Ballot and it will be close. I do wonder what Jawando’s strategy on the budget was. Maybe it doesn’t matter to the general public but he boxed himself in by saying no property tax increase, and then having to vote for a budget with a de facto tax increase anyway. And now MCPS is actually hurting him on the back end by continuing to play politics and blame the Council for position reductions it was going to eventually have to make anyway.
Friedson — he has something to say, and that something is no taxes.
Andrew Friedson to win. The only way Andrew could win this race is to come up with a substantial money pot and he has done that that. He’s also done a good job of positioning on what I think are the key issues – the economy and taxes. His background on economic and finance issues with the state for many many years also plays well. And while he has made some enemies on things like housing affordability in general he shows over and over again that he is a guy who can get things done and not just talk.
Friedson. Fiscal responsibility, great campaign, good political timing, Jewish vote, broad support, money from broad sources.
This is very hard to predict. Friedson’s massive financial advantage gives him an advantage in advertising, and he quickly captured most of the state delegation. I think Jawando will benefit from the backlash at the Realtors’ ad against him. However, I will go out on a limb and, by a very narrow margin, pick Glass to win.
Jawando. Unfortunately, this race will just come down to name recognition – and Jawando has been publicly running and on ballots for a decade – remember he ran for Congress in 2016, County Council a few times even Senate.
Evan Glass. I have very little confidence in this prediction and it is admittedly based on a hunch. But my thesis is that Evan could squeak through the middle as the negatives rise to the candidates on his left and right. He also has good name ID and just enough cash to get his message out.
Friedson. The fear (or hope, depending on who you ask) is that 2026 is a repeat of the 2018 or 2022 county executive’s races, where Marc Elrich squeaked past David Blair by a handful each time. But Will is not Marc and Andrew is not David, and I think that plays in Andrew’s favor.
Too close to call with any confidence. My gut says Jawando, that his Elrichite positioning and the Apple Ballot provide the edge he needs.
Friedson wins, but it’s a close three-way finish. I would not be shocked to see Jawando or even Glass pull it out, but Friedson has had a significant advantage in resources and he has used it well on TV and mail. The independent expenditure campaign against Jawando has been effective, although he is a talented politician who has benefited from significant independent expenditures in his favor. If Glass wins it will be because Friedson, Jawando, and their respective allies have treated him as an afterthought.
Andrew struggled to find his voice, but once he landed on the affordability/tax issue, the momentum swung his way. Evan and Will were left flatfooted and confused.
Glass (a sleeper while the other two trash each other directly and through surrogates/PACs, Evan is methodically working the ground game in what will be a low turnout election).
Jawando in a close race but MoCo is accustomed to that. Jawando’s support from the unions and therefore his ability to “cover” the 270 plus precincts on Election Day will be the difference. The Apple Ballot again flexes its strength.
I think Friedson might eke this one out. My second guess would be Jawando. I think Jawando could upset and pull out ahead of Friedson in the end thanks to Gov. Moore’s endorsement, but that will depend on if Jawando can turn out enough Election Day voters to make a difference.
Friedson. Why? In a 3-way toss-up Friedson has the most piercing campaign mailers that distinguish the 3 candidates, and his “My record on NO more taxes” is key. But if not Friedson then Jawando. Why? He got that coveted Gov. Moore endorsement.
I really have no clue. I have watched and been close to this race and have no idea. The three of them are running very different races in terms of money, organizing and strategy. I think Raskin doesn’t know either and it has been kind of funny watching on Facebook as each candidate put a picture with Raskin and a statement from him up on their various websites. All 3 of them. We will also see which endorsements matter the most – the Gov or the Council President or even more local officials (like municipalities), etc. If at all…
Friedson. This race is a complete toss up, but the late money, lack of message from Glass and campaign finance issues for Jawando pushes this to Friedson. I do not like the way the far left and independent expenditures across the board have made this confusing race.
Friedson. While Evan Glass has painted himself as the ‘moderate’ in the race… he’s actually more aligned with Will Jawando on major policy votes (rent stablization, SROs) and both Evan and Will are Silver Spring based. Andrew has separation from both of his competitors on policy and geography… thus, I believe he will win in a squeaker.
This is so hard. Between Glass, Jawando, and Friedson, I think Friedson should win. He’s the most practical, and I think he’s the only one that sees the forest through the trees in terms of growing our economy. However, what I *think* will happen, is that Glass and Friedson will split the moderate vote and Jawando will emerge the victor.
I have a feeling that Will Jawando is going to win. If it’s not Will (and the only reason it might not is because of the negative ads), I think it will be Evan.
Andrew Friedson by a modest margin. Andrew has proven to be a formidable fundraiser which allowed him to out-communicate his opponents, something he needed to do running against two credible challengers who had already been on countywide ballots twice. And Andrew is a workhorse. There aren’t many people who can out-work Andrew and that served him well in this race.
Glass has run a clean race and is not supported by PACs, Unions or special interests. People like that he doesn’t owe anybody anything and that he is focused on the work. He has stayed out of dirty Trump style politics, and back and forth fighting. He has eight years of relationships all over the county and has been on the ballot multiple times. People know and like Evan. Money and charm can’t buy that.
Too close to call, but honestly none of them really “win” when there’s been so much mudslinging and name calling.
*****
Final source tally
Friedson: 42 votes
Jawando: 8 votes
Glass: 7 votes
Tossup: 2 votes
Final comment from Pagnucco: My sources are smart and experienced but not infallible. I think they will get at least one of their predictions wrong. Will it be the county executive race? Will it be one of the other races? We shall find out soon enough!